Jacques Raubenheimer, University of Sydney
If we don’t analyse statistics for a living, it’s easy to be taken in by misinformation about COVID-19 statistics on social media, especially if we don’t have the right context.
For instance, we may cherry pick statistics supporting our viewpoint and ignore statistics showing we are wrong. We also still need to correctly interpret these statistics.
It’s easy for us to share this misinformation. Many of these statistics are also interrelated, so misunderstandings can quickly multiply.
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Here’s how we can avoid five common errors, and impress friends and family by getting the statistics right.
1. It’s the infection rate that’s scary, not the death rate
Social media posts comparing COVID-19 to other causes of death, such as the flu, imply COVID-19 isn’t really that deadly.
But these posts miss COVID-19’s infectiousness. For that, we need to look at the infection fatality rate (IFR) — the number of COVID-19 deaths divided by all those infected (a number we can only estimate at this stage, see also point 3 below).
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