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The question everyone's asking today about missing flight MH370.

 

 

Once any wreckage is found, then begins the slow process of trying to find out how Malaysia Airlines flight MH370 ended up where it did.

Authorities are still searching for signs of any objects seen about 2,500km off the coast of Western Australia that may be wreckage from the flight.

Two objects – one 24 metres in size, the other smaller at five metres – were identified in Australian satellite images. It shows that satellite imagery may be helpful in such a wide area searches, despite the earlier images of debris from a Chinese satellite proving to be false.

Satellite imagery shows the largest 24 metre size object, which may be possible debris from the missing Malaysia Airlines flight MH370.

If any wreckage is found by RAAF search aircraft and confirmed to be from flight MH370, it will be a major breakthrough in the hunt for an aircraft that has been missing since it left Kuala Lumpur on Saturday 8 March on its regular flight to Beijing with 239 passengers and crew on board.

The hunt for clues

What happens next, if the wreckage is found to have been from MH370, is that search planners will try to extrapolate its journey backwards in time.

Based on best estimates of ocean currents in the area, they will try to estimate where the wreckage might have begun to drift and possible tracks the aircraft may have flown to get to the southern Indian Ocean after radar contact was lost.

If the debris is from flight MH370, the flight recorder beacons should be transmitting, so narrowing the search to the southern Indian Ocean may improve the potential to detect one of those signals.

Whose investigation?

If the debris is found by search aircraft and closer examination proves it to be from the flight, who gets tasked with its recovery might come down to who can get assets out there in a reasonable time frame.

The responsibility for any investigation of the wreckage will still be vested in Malaysia as the country where the aircraft was registered. It is, after all, a Malaysia Airlines aircraft and their passengers and crew. I would expect other countries such as Australia will continue to provide assistance.

It will still be very difficult and time-consuming to recover the wreckage once it is located. The depth of water alone will have a significant influence on the recovery options available, the difficulty involved and the time it will take.

The search for the flight recorders will be investigators highest priority. The digital flight data recorder will provide clear evidence of what the aircraft was doing from the time it departed Kuala Lumpur.

Thousands of recorded parameters will give a very accurate picture of the flight, speeds, altitudes, headings, the configuration of hundreds of key aircraft components – a continuous image of what the aircraft actually did.

The cockpit voice recorder should also shed light on what conversations and other noises occurred in the cockpit leading up to and after the last words: “All right, good night.”

The crash site

Investigators will also want to obtain photographs of the wreckage on the sea floor among their first attempts to gather useful information to shed light on just what happened to MH370. Photos of wreckage on the sea floor were also useful in the case of Air France flight 447.

Whether or not there will be any human remains located or whether any bodies may be recovered will also depend on a whole lot of factors, such as the extent to which the aircraft broke up and the time the bodies have spent in the water.

Questions, questions, questions

There are still so many questions about the flight that need to be answered and so very little hard evidence available upon which to begin to form answers with any degree of surety.

A spokesperson for the airline said the Aircraft Communications Addressing and Reporting System (ACARS) was disabled just before the aircraft reached the east coast of peninsular Malaysia. Shortly afterwards, near the border between Malaysian and Vietnamese air traffic control, the aircraft’s transponder was switched off.

If this is true, there’s really no plausible reason why flight crew would take such action in normal flight operations.

 

How wide is the search?

Since the aircraft disappeared, the search area has gradually widened, from the original area off the coast of Vietnam, to include an area off Western Australia.

An Australian Maritime Safety Authority graphic shows the search areas for the Malaysia Airlines flight MH370 where “possibly related” objects were seen from satellite imagery.

The delay in finding anything means wreckage could have drifted quite a bit. The main investigation into potential causes will not really begin until the wreckage and recorders can be found and recovered, otherwise we may never know what happened.

In the wake of the MH370 tragedy, questions will be asked about the need for keeping track of passenger aircraft. Already some are questioning how a modern airliner can be allowed to disappear given today’s technology.

Yet, thousands are being completed safely every day and only one has seemingly disappeared. So any intervention to try to reduce the probability of a repeat disappearance will have to meet an extremely demanding cost benefit equation indeed.

Geoffrey Dell does not work for, consult to, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has no relevant affiliations.

This article was originally published on The Conversation. Read the original article.

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Top Comments

Fredd 10 years ago

The cockpit voice recorder isn't likely to help with anything. It's got a two hour tape that records on a loop.

So IF this stuff is the plane in question, the interesting dialogue (assuming there was any) will have been written over two or three times.

Anonymous 10 years ago

Huh?? What's the point of having a flight recorder if things are being written over? That would defeat the whole purpose of having a record of events.

... 10 years ago

Because when planes crash it's the last few hours that matter, not the first.

Fredd 10 years ago

It's not designed for a situation like this (assuming this stuff turns out to be the wreck). Something goes wrong on aeroplane ==> nasty crash ==> investigation. All very quick. That's what the FDR and CVR are designed for -- and they work very well for that.

The scenario that something could go horribly wrong, killing everyone on board, and then the plane flies for another 6 hours isn't a contingency these instruments are designed for.


Guest 10 years ago

Wiki extract:- re the AUSSIE INVENTOR of 'the Black Box')

Marniequin2 posting as 'Guest'

DAVID WARREN (20 March 1925 – 19 July 2010)

Dr David Ronald de Mey Warren AO, BSc (Sydney), PhD (London), DIC, DipEd (Melbourne), FAIE (20 March 1925 – 19 July 2010)

was an Australian scientist, best known for inventing and developing the flight data recorder and cockpit voice recorder (also known as FDR, CVR, and "the black box").[1]

Warren's invention, which relied on magnetic recording media, allowed easy erasing and
re-recording, which made it practical for routine line service. Warren's
concept of cockpit voice recording added a new dimension to instrument data in flight
recorders, and has proved extremely valuable for accident investigation.

Interestingly, some accidents where the CVR played a prominent role were solved
not by the crew's recorded voices, but by other sounds incidentally recorded on the CVR,
which provided a vital clue to the accident cause.[5]
(See also Flight recorder#History