The anti-vaccination movement is growing.
In some Australian communities an increasing number of parents are choosing not to vaccinate their children against potentially deadly diseases.
With this in mind, is it possible that 2017 will be the year when the anti-vaxxers win? Could we see a tipping point in public health, in which all the gains we’ve made over the past few decades are lost?
In a recent New York Times article, scientist and researcher Peter J. Hotez, argued that the US is dangerously close to this tipping point.
According to Hotez, when the percentage of children in a community who have received the measles vaccine falls below 90 to 95 percent, we might start to see major outbreaks.
In the 1950s four million Americans a year were infected with measles and 450 died each year from the disease. Worldwide, measles still kills around 100,000 children each year.
And Hotez says the US could potentially see a return to these alarming statistics sooner rather than later.
Hotez lives and works in Texas and believes it may be the first state to once again experience serious measles outbreaks.
As of last year, more than 45,000 children in the state of Texas had received non-medical exemptions from their school vaccinations.
According to Hotez, a political action committee has been raising money to protect this “conscientious exemption” loophole and to instruct parents on how to file for it. As a result, some public school systems in the state are coming dangerously close to the threshold when measles outbreaks can be expected, for example in Gaines County alone nearly five per cent of students are not being vaccinated due to a conscientious exemption. And a third of students at some private schools are unvaccinated.
And this is increasingly becoming the case across America.
In Australia, the situation isn't quite so dire. Yet.
We've definitely seen an increase in parents choosing not to vaccinate their children, but we're unlikely to see widespread outbreaks of measles and other diseases in the near future.
In fact, we're much more likely to see local outbreaks in the communities where vaccination numbers are dropping such as the Eastern Suburbs of Sydney and Mullumbimby in the Northern Rivers of NSW.
According to Professor Robert Booy, Head of the Clinical Research at the National Centre for Immunisation Research and Surveillance, we need well over 90% of people to be vaccinated in every community to prevent localised outbreaks.
"If measles is introduced to a new community that hasn't yet experienced the disease, one person can infect up to ten other people," he explained.
"Once you drop under 90 per cent, and the number of people who can catch it increases, you get outbreaks."
"To begin with they may be small, but the more susceptible people you have, the bigger the outbreaks."
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And these smaller localised outbreaks could potentially lead to bigger outbreaks down the line.
Booy believes that the only way to prevent this long term damage is for more parents to immunise their children now.
"Immunisation is so important, it's so safe and so effective, that it sells itself."
Top Comments
Monster- So your parents did the 'research'? but you have the same opinion? Yes I agree with Feast but when we ask why they feel this way we are given answers like Monster. It's like arguing with toddlers, their answers are ridiculous, it's futile, where to even begin, when to end?
Try not to judge them all by the more vocal ones on the internet. Like any situation, you will struggle to sway the vocal extremes.
I think it's similar to politics at the moment, people have got sick of being shouted at when they voice concern. They stop talking about it and go away and do their own research which with doubts in their mind and confirmation bias already in play it will mean they are looking at questionable research that confirms their fears.
I am very much pro-vax BUT I think it is time to stop shouting at those that aren't. It will do more harm than good and won't change any minds.
Next time someone talks about it, instead of calling them names and shouting talk to them calmly. Ask what their concerns are and where they got them from. Works through their concerns nicely and counter their fears one by one without condescending them.
Has anyone ever changed your mind for the better by shouting at you and calling names?
We don't need to ask anti-vaxxers what their concerns are - they keep telling us. When are they going to listen to what we're saying about why it's a bad idea? Nobody *started off* shouting, but it's an understandable response when people spout nonsense repeatedly.
Rubbish. You are judging all anti-vaxxers on the extreme vocal ones that lurk on the internet. Judging any group by it's extremes is crazy.
A large portion of those with concerns are normal every day people that have heard rumours and stories from vocal anti-vaxxers and have put doubt in their mind. Funnily enough when you sit down and talk to them like normal people they are, well, normal people. I have talked around several anti-vaxxers by talking to them nicely, explaining where some of the myths come from and basically not being a condescending arsehat. How many have been turned around by abuse, name calling and belittling?
Yeah, how long do we have to listen to the opinions of the uniformed and incorrect before we say 'enough, you're wrong' and force people to do the right thing?
So you believe force is acceptable when people disagree with you? Does that work for both sides or only the one you support?