The 'curse of the late surge' is a convincing theory that explains why Elise won't win.

She had no formal introduction, was given no real presence or airtime in early episodes and played no pivotal role in the story arc of the first part of the season.

And yet, here we are, with just a handful of weeks to go in The Bachelor and former Hockeyrooo, Elise Stacey, is emerging from the ashes to be considered – according to many – a ‘front runner’.

She might not be the front runner, but she’s one of them. And don’t just take my word for it, because people are putting their money behind this sudden realisation. Just ask Sportsbet, who have been inundated with the sprinklings of cash thrown behind the former athlete after her single date with Matty, watching her odds close to $4.

She might win, fans say. She’s had a late surge.

But, um, I have two words for you: Nikki Gogan.

Actually, nine words: Nikki Gogan and the curse of the late surge.

Nikki Gogan, beloved contestant from Richie Strahan’s season of The Bachelor, had a strong and very late surge, stealing our hearts and our minds in the process, accidentally accumulating a cult following along the way.

And then she lost.

Consider Matty J for a second. In the first few episodes of The Bachelorette last year, Matty J might as well have been back in London, so invisible was he at the beginning of filming. He, too, had a late surge. A quick one, but a noticeable one.

Lana (left) and Nikki (right). Image: Instagram.

And then he lost.

Next up? Lana Jeavons-Fellows. She had the ultimate late surge, coming in as an intruder on Sam Wood's season of The Bachelor. For the second half of that season, she demanded airtime and attention.

And then she lost.

The season before? Richie Strahan, himself. Sasha Mielczarek was an early, obvious favourite. Producers knew they needed a decoy, and Strahan was thrown under the proverbial bus. They forced him to have a late surge.


And then he lost.

The season before that? (Also known as the season with the Bachelor Who Must Not Be Named.)

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Lisa Hyde. She faded much into the background in the early parts of the season, before coming into her own just as the show was coming to an end.

And then she lost. Side note, and in her defence, losing in a season where even the winner loses? Not so much a loss.

And then the first season, with our first ever Bachelor Tim Robards. Anna Heinrich was an early favourite, getting the second ever single date. (Yes, I know these things. No, I didn't Google it. And yes, I am open to finding new hobbies/activities/or a general life purpose.)

Rochelle Emanuel-Smith was another unfortunate decoy, distracting us from the obvious central narrative that was the love story between Tim and Anna.

And then she lost.

It's the curse of the late surge.

Consider yourself warned. Don't be silly enough to be fall for a producer's ploy.

(Unless I am said idiot and am actually falling for the real ploy, which is the surety of Laura Byrne winning. Which would be awkward and a very publicly embarrassing feat.)

For more on The Bachelor:

A new promo for The Bachelorette has dropped and be warned, things get very emotional.

The Twins recap The Bachelor episode 11: Oh. They’re done with being nice.

The Bachelor’s Alex Nation confronts commenter who questioned her about her relationship.