Before Australia’s recent changes to COVID testing, working out when we reached the peak of cases was, in principal, straightforward.
We looked at the numbers of new daily cases, diagnosed via PCR. From there, we worked out a range of other key indicators related to COVID spread, testing and hospitalisation – each dependent on those daily case numbers.
However, we’ve seen a huge spike in cases recently as people test positive using rapid antigen tests, especially as reporting their results to state health authorities is now possible and becoming mandatory.
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So it will be a few days before we can measure some key numbers with any degree of accuracy. Only then will we be able to say with confidence when we’ve hit the peak and are coming down the other side.
1. The number of new daily cases.
Most people by now would have seen an epidemic curve. It is a plot of the number of new cases of COVID-19 diagnosed each day. Here is the current epidemic curve for New South Wales.