Tom Farrier is the former director of safety, Air Transport Association.
Ignore Hollywood. Aircraft involved in crashes are safer than at any time in history, thanks to decades of experience, research, and safety enhancements. According to the Aviation Safety Network, in 2016 there were about 163 aviation “accidents” worldwide, including those involving business jets and military transports as well as jet and propeller airliners. A grand total of 24 resulted in fatalities, meaning only about 15 percent of all accidents in this grouping—which themselves are extremely rare events—actually resulted in lives being lost. Only five of the fatal 2016 accidents were in the U.S, and none involved a major U.S. air carrier.
Consider four possible outcomes to any crash:
- You survive a survivable accident
- You survive a non-survivable accident
- You don’t survive a survivable accident
- You don’t survive a non-survivable accident
So, what the heck is a “survivable accident,” anyway? Well, to synthesize a couple of different takes on the subject, most in the aviation safety business (as well as those interested in other types of vehicle safety), look for three conditions:
- The forces encountered by human occupants were within the limits of human tolerance
- The structure surrounding occupants remains substantially intact, maintaining an uncompromised volume around them
- The postcrash environment does not present an immediate threat to occupants or rescuers
In practical terms, this means directing forces away from people, slowing the onset of those that can’t be redirected, preventing internal structures from failing in such a way as to stick into the area where the carbon-based life forms are, and keeping the fire, smoke, and fumes from easily starting or readily spreading. On this basis, you can see that a smoking hole in the ground is nonsurvivable, and there’s always a possibility that a small number of people don’t get the full benefit of protections that rendered the overall accident to be considered “survivable.” But, there are many, many examples to the contrary in events classified as “accidents” due to property damage and/or major injuries experienced in them.