How to pick a Melbourne Cup winner, according to science.

Our virtual race was on the money last year as Protectionist was pipped in a photo finish. Scroll through to see how the 2015 field compares to all previous Melbourne Cup winners across a range of metrics.

Barriers

The barrier draw can be crucial depending on how a horse races. Wide barriers may suit those runners that like to settle back in the field, while front-runners can expend less energy early in the race if they have an inside draw.

Records show barriers 5 and 11 lead the way in the Melbourne Cup, so that’s a positive sign for the outsider Sertorius and Victoria Derby winner Preferment this year.

Gate 18 is the only barrier (of those still in use) with no success so far, something European galloper Bondi Beach is looking to change.

Rain Lover started from barrier 24 in 1968 but it had little effect on him, winning by eight lengths in then-record time.

He was trained by former coal miner Mick Robins, who only obtained his training licence three months before the Cup.

But he had a champion stayer on his hands, who then repeated the effort a year later under 60.5 kilograms.

Rain Lover is one of only five horses to win the Cup more than once.

Colour

The colour of thoroughbreds is determined by genetics and falls into different categories.

The common colour of bay is the most successful when it comes to Melbourne Cup winners, claiming 66 wins — or 42 per cent of past Cups.

Brown horses (37) and chestnut (34) are battling it out for next best.

Many punters have a soft spot for greys, which have won only six Cups in all, but sadly there aren't any running this year.

The grey Subzero etched his name in the history books by winning the Cup in 1992, but he became a true racing icon after his retirement.

The placid "Subbie" worked as a clerk of the course horse and also made appearances at charity events and schools, often giving young kids a chance to ride a Melbourne Cup winner.

At 27 years of age and suffering from arthritis, Subzero and his best mate Graham Salisbury still show up in public from time to time.

Last year he became the first horse to actually be present when inducted into the Australian Racing Hall of Fame.

Sex

In the battle of the sexes, there is one undisputed winner and the men simply rule the Cup.

In more than 150 runnings, the race has been won by a female on only 16 occasions — 13 mares (4yo+) and three fillies (3yo). Some greats are among them including Makybe Diva, Let's Elope and Light Fingers.

This year the fairer sex has a sole representative in the shape of Australian Oaks winner Gust Of Wind.

The numbers for the girls wouldn't even be what they are if it weren't for Makybe Diva adding three to the total from 2003 to 2005.

By 2005 she was in career-best form and had proven herself a weight-for-age champion by winning the Cox Plate.

But a third Cup secured Makybe Diva's legendary status and soon after owner Tony Santic and trainer Lee Freedman decided there was no better way for her to leave the stage, announcing her retirement.

Breeding

Being a local, born and bred, clearly looks to be an advantage, but the numbers hide a contemporary truth about the changing face of the Cup.

Importing horses to access the world's best bloodlines is nothing new, but Australian and New Zealand-bred horses dominated the Cup until around the turn of this century. But more recently, they have bred only five of the past 15 winners, and three of the past 10.

Only six runners in this year's Cup (New Zealand 5, Australia 1) were bred in the southern hemisphere, as local owners and trainers look north in search of their Cup winner.

When Vintage Crop stormed to victory in 1993, he changed the Melbourne Cup into a race of true international stature.

The champion Irish stayer inspired an influx of overseas owners and trainers in search of the Cup's riches - 11 internationals contest the Cup this year.

Vintage Crop also ran seventh in the 1994 Cup and third in 1995. He has been immortalised in bronze at the Curragh racecourse in Ireland.

Age

Younger does not always mean faster when it comes to the Cup, because some horses take longer to mature - mentally and physically - than others.

Three-year-olds did boast a terrific Cup record – winning more than a quarter of the time – until their run was halted after Skipton in 1941.

Times have changed and the winning zone is now very much horses aged four, five and six. The win of Protectionist last year has just given five-year-olds the edge.

No 10-year-old has triumphed, meaning three-time runner-up Red Cadeaux will have to create history this year to win.

With an average age of about 5.9, this year's Cup field is almost a year younger than 2014 which boasted one of the oldest fields in the race's history.

Skipton, named after the town in Victoria, is the most recent three-year-old to win the Cup, way back in 1941.

Pub owner John Kitson bought the son of 1935 Cup winner Marabou as a birthday present for his wife Myrtle.

Mrs Kitson, however, felt she brought bad luck to Skipton and wasn't at Flemington to witness him become the 13th winner of the Victoria Derby-Melbourne Cup double.

Times have changed and it's rare to see three-year-olds contest the Cup these days, but Nothin' Leica Dane came close in 1995 - after winning the Derby he ran second to Doriemus in the Cup.

Weight

The Melbourne Cup is a handicap race, so each horse is given a weight that is meant to make the contest as even as possible.

Quite simply, the best horses are given a higher weight - some can still prove too good and prevail, while for others the adage of "weight will stop a train" quite often applies.

Horses with a weight of 50 kilograms or less have enjoyed the lion's share of success through the years, but this generally represents a different time when minimum weights could be a lot lower. Because jockeys nowadays are physically bigger, the lowest weight they can safely ride has been raised.

At the other end of the scale, 19 horses have carried the equivalent of 58kg or more to victory. The most recent to do this was three-time champ Makybe Diva (2005). Snow Sky is looking to emulate the feat this year.

Phar Lap, whose name ranks alongside Bradman in Australian sporting history, is regarded as the greatest Cup winner of all time.

He contested the Cup three times, finishing third as a three-year-old in 1929 before famously winning under 62.5 kilograms in 1930.

Then thanks to his dominance, Phar Lap was asked to carry 10 stone 10 pounds (68kg) in the 1931 Cup - the highest weight ever carried in the Melbourne Cup.

The Red Terror could only finish eighth under the massive impost, conceding 24.5 kilograms to the winner White Nose.

Odds

The majority of winners start at odds of between $4 and $10, but thanks to the size of the field there's plenty of value to be found up to $20. From there, your chances start to diminish.

Favourites have a fair strike rate in the Cup, winning just over 22 per cent of the time (34 in all), with the most recent being Fiorente at $7 in 2013.

Japan's Fame Game is all the rage this year, but be mindful that only six horses have started at odds below $4 and won.

Only one horse has run as an odds-on favourite in the Cup, and it was the immortal Phar Lap who carried the money of an entire nation when he saluted at the equivalent of $1.73 in 1930.

At the other end of the spectrum, a word of caution to those of you who like to have a dollar on the 100-1 outsider; only three horses have won at triple-figure odds and it's been a long time between drinks: Old Rowley (1940), Wotan (1936) and The Pearl (1871).

In his younger days Old Rowley was a laughing stock, even to his owner and trainer, because of how slow he was. But over time he proved that slow and steady could win a race, especially over long distances.

Despite having moderate form in Sydney, Old Rowley's connections decided to have a shot at the Cup in 1940.

The 100-1 chance settled at the back of the field and picked off his rivals as they began to tire, crossing the line a winner by three-quarters of a length to the shock of the Flemington crowd.

Saddlecloths

Saddlecloths are the all-important numbers you have to know when filling out your betting tickets. They are organised from the highest weighted horse (1) to the lowest (24). If two horses have the same weight, then the horses can be listed in alphabetical order.

The field size for the Cup has been restricted to 24 horses for a number of years now, but as many as 39 horses have contested the race (1890) and as few as seven (1863).

Horses carrying the 4 and 12 saddlecloths have the most wins with 11 apiece, so the pressure is on Our Ivanhowe and Sky Hunter to keep their heads in front.

Lucky number 7 (Hokko Brave) isn't living up to that description with just two wins, but 18 (Kingfisher) can only boast one win.

Carbine was the greatest horse of his generation and one of five inaugural inductees into the Racing Hall of Fame, the so-called immortals.

The New Zealand-bred galloper, nicknamed "Old Jack", won 33 of 43 starts, including the Melbourne Cup in 1890.

The Cup that year holds the record of most runners with 39, and Carbine lumped the massive weight of 10 stone 5 pounds (65.7 kilograms) to victory.

Carbine became a major success as a sire, and more than half of the Cup winners from 1914 to 1978 are his descendants.

Silks

Everyone has a favourite colour. For most Melbourne Cup winners, they've left their rivals blue with envy.

Runners with predominately blue jockey silks have won 41 times, with Protectionist carrying blue, white and black silks last year.

Black (33) and gold or yellow (30) are the next most successful colours worn by jockeys during the Cup's history.

There's a good mix of colours this year, but blue still comes through for a third of the field.

One person who'll be hoping blue is to the fore again is high-profile owner Lloyd Williams.

His famous blue, white armbands and cap have been in the winner's circle on three occasions — What A Nuisance (1985), Efficient (2007) and Green Moon (2012).

Williams was also an owner of 1981 winner Just A Dash (which wore blue and green silks), giving him four Cups in all.

Three other owners have four wins: John Tait (1866, 1868, 1871, 1872); Etienne de Mestre (1861, 1862, 1867, 1878); Dato Tan Chin Nam (1974, 1975, 1996, 2008).

Words in a name

As far as names go, the Melbourne Cup is typically a two-horse race between those whose name comprises one word and two words.

The onesies are shading it at the moment and in the past 20 years have scored 12 times. This includes seven of the past eight Cups, with Protectionist the most recent last year.

The only winners with three words in their name are Van Der Hum (1976), Gold And Black (1977), Just A Dash (1981), What A Nuisance (1985) and Might And Power (1997).

There's a group of three-word contenders this year — Trip To Paris, Who Shot Thebarman, Quest For More, Prince Of Penzance, The United States and Gust Of Wind.

The Melbourne Cup of 1976 has gone down in folklore as being run on perhaps the wettest track in its history.

Flemington was deluged with rain 30 minutes before the race and the track was turned into a quagmire, but it failed to dampen the hopes of noted mudlark Van Der Hum.

Van Der Hum, named after a South African brandy-based liqueur, was backed into favouritism and duly saluted in a time of 3 minutes 34 seconds, about 14 seconds slower than what is standard these days.

Initials

This category, which literally represents the A-B-Cs of Cup statistics, reveals winners whose names start with T are hot to trot.

It helps when many have names such as The Barb (1866), The Pearl (1871), The Quack (1872), The Assyrian (1882), The Grafter (1898), The Victory (1902), The Parisian (1911) and The Trump (1937).

Last year's win for Protectionist saw P rise to 13 victories and break out of a dead-heat with M and S.

Horses whose names start with the letters I, Q, U, X and Y, despite their value in Scrabble, are still winless after 154 years.

Quest For More is the only chance this year to break through for the winless brigade.

The only Z winner, Zulu in 1881, triumphed in a Cup that would be remembered for all the wrong reasons.

Around 100,000 people, around a third of Melbourne's population at the time, were left horrified as a dog raced onto the track during the race. This caused two runners to fall, resulting in the death of jockey George Dodd.

By race's end, Zulu - with 36.3 kilograms on his back, the second lowest weight ever carried to Cup victory - had landed a blow to punters by saluting at 50-1.

Our analysis

Our data suggests Preferment, Chris Waller's Victoria Derby winner of last year, has the most similar profile to past Melbourne Cup winners.

It was a decisive victory in the end as he ticked many of the right boxes — barrier, colour, sex, age, weight, odds, words in a name and initials.

Entering the second half of the race, Preferment and the American-bred Almoonqith raced clear of the field.

While it got close approaching the line, Preferment had enough history on his side to snatch victory.

Both horses are rated in the top six chances in betting for Tuesday's big race, with the 200-1 outsider Sertorius filling third spot just ahead of Hartnell.

The shock result was the poor performance of red-hot favourite Fame Game, who finished a long last after being weighed down by his barrier, colour, odds and initials data.

This post originally appeared on the ABC and was republished here with full permission. 

© 2015 Australian Broadcasting Corporation. All rights reserved. Read the ABC Disclaimer here.