Prime Minister Julia Gillard.
We’re all talking about it, but what exactly happens at a leadership spill?
At 10am on Monday morning, Julia Gillard will call a ‘spill’ or a ‘leadership ballot’ at a special caucus meeting.
All 103 members of the Labor caucus – all Federal Labor MPs and Senators will decide at that meeting if they should take a vote on who should lead the party.
At the spill, Julia Gillard will step aside from the PM position leaving it open to anyone who wants to put his or her hand up for the role. She’s already indicated that she will be re-contesting for the role.
Anyone can nominate. But this spill has been called for one person only. Mr Kevin Rudd. Kevin 07. Kevin 747. Ex-Prime Minister of Australia. Ex-Foreign Minister of Australia. Ex-Happy Little Vegemite.
He wants the job, and Julia Gillard is forcing him to finally fight for it. Put up or shut up.
To win, he’ll need 52 out of the 103 votes. It’s looking extremely unlikely that he’ll get that many votes. In 2010 he didn’t even contest the spill because he knew he wouldn’t win.
But when he lands in Australia tomorrow, he’ll hit the phones like a telemarketer working on commission. “Hello sir, are you happy with your current Prime Minister?”
Cabinet members have been pretty public in their vicious condemnation of Kevin Rudd, so if he was successful; he’d need a whole new front bench. Don’t underestimate the desire of some of those backbenchers to get a seat at the Cabinet table. His offer of a cushy portfolio could be enough to turn the staunchest Gillard supporter.
Choose your own adventure….
1. Kevin Rudd chooses not to contest the Prime Ministership. This is actually very likely, and probably a smart move. He won’t win. He doesn’t have enough time to work on the caucus members. He would prefer to call for a spill in a few weeks time. So he might sit back and quietly plot the spill on his own timetable.
2. Kevin Rudd contests and loses the ballot. He may feel like he’s been pushed into a corner and has no choice but to contest. If he fails to reach 52 votes, he will go to the backbench and quietly simmer in his rage. Julia Gillard will continue to be Prime Minister.
3. It won’t be the end though. He will contest again after he’s had enough time to campaign inside the party. Paul Keating lost his first spill against Bob Hawke…but waited and called for a second spill, which he won when Bob Hawke stood down. Julia Gillard has given a commitment that if she were to lose, she’ll move to the backbench and never contest again. She asked Rudd to give the same commitment. He won’t.
4. Kevin Rudd wins. He is our Prime Minister again. Julia Gillard moves to the back bench. The bile created from all the nastiness and betrayal will start to poison the Labor party…. Nobody wins.
5. Simon Crean also puts his hand up for the leadership….. everyone slaps their foreheads and has a little cry.
Kevin Rudd wins office during the November 2007 Federal election.
So, which adventure would you prefer?
Lauren Dubois is Mamamia’s Canberra-based political contributor. You can follow her on Twitter here
Comments
46 Comments so far
This is a great post – written with a sense of humour, informative, non biased,
altogether a much better way to approach this issue MM. Thank you!
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I manot inlcined ot support Kevin Rudd on his recent actions.
they appear to be only for his self advancement
and to satisfy his need for revenge.
there is no evidence that he cares about the survival of the ALP
He has delivered us into the hands of Abbott.
He walked out of Talks with the Yanks and so offended them
The governemnt is hangingon a thread asit is
He could havesppokenprivatley to the PM when he arrived back
withhis missioninhte USAproperly completed.
He ahs nto down australia any great good..Margaret
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Welcome Lauren. Excellent post. Very informative.
Its been interesting to see the reaction of ordinary Australians to the leadership tussle – people seem deeply annoyed like its something that is causing them a major personal inconvenience. In fact I think we just like to have a whinge.
Lots of people are talking about Abbott being a shoe-in for the next election, but no-one will admit they will vote for him – so Im not so sure. If he does get in, those who have expressed intense dislike of Julia Gillard – inevitably on emotive grounds, and despite her arguably good performance as PM against many indicators – will no doubt have much to whine about then too.
It must be a very interesting time right now for political analysts.
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cheers Kate!
It really is a funny old time to be in Canberra. I find people fall into three camps. Those who know and love politics, those who don’t know very much but have lots to say, and those who couldn’t care less. I don’t know who’s worse out of the three!!
And while I think it would be hard for Labor to win the next election, you can never say never…. we still have 18 months to go and they surprise us constantly! Enjoy the next few days. It’s going to be interesting
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“In fact I think we just like to have a whinge.”
I think you hit the nail on the head there. When I look at countries around the world, with serious oppression, warfare and poverty issues… no matter who we end up with, we’re still very bloody lucky to live where we do.
Obviously we want things to be the best they can, but sometimes its helpful to put things into perspective.
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thank you for this article.
whenever something crazy (read: confusing) is happening in politics etc, i go straight to Mamamia because from past experience, i’ve seen you always write great articles explaining in LAYMEN’S terms (read: without jargon) so I actually have a vague idea of WTF is going on in my country!!!
hahahaha
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Just so you’re reeeaallly up to date – you’ll need to ignore option 1 now…. KRudd’s decided to go for it!! And he’s promised that if he loses, he won’t contest the leadership again (see option 3). But just between you and I…. I’ll believe that when I see it
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Love this and welcome! Tremendous having someone from the press gallery on the site!
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Thank you Rick! I’m looking forward to sharing more about the mad bad world of politics
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You know they are stuffed when an ABC presenter asks his guests:
“So, who is going to be defeated by Tony Abbott at the next election: Rudd or Gillard?”
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I am a supporter of all the values Labor people fight for. Kevin Rudd inspired me to become involved in politics. As a China specialist and academic I would otherwise not have considered doing that. I am also a mum who has had too many career breaks to build up much superannuation. Most of the work I have done in the past twelve years is economically invisible because it was unpaid. Much of the work of women I have met does not register in the system of national accounts. I rely on public health care. My son attends a government school like a lot of his friends. Their schools need proper funding because their parents cannot afford private fees. When I reach official retirement age I will need a basic pension because the larger part of my work did not include superannuation contributions from any employer. I feel Kevin Rudd has the vision to lead our country and like myself is learning every day how to change things for the better.
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Welcome to Mammamia, Lauren!
I look forward to reading your posts about the shenanigans in Canberra!
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Julia offers assured defeat at the hands of Tony.
Kevin offers a chance of victory.
Aussies love sport and long for better talent in this political game.
Bring back Kevin to stop Tony Abbott with his simplistic, primitive, anti-progressive and embarassing claptrap.
Show your support with the “Release Kevin” petition.
http://www.petitionbuzz.com/petitions/releasekevin
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Nice one Dubes. Very informative. Poor ol’ Ruddy, obviously such an A-hole that his party will choose to lose the next election rather than bring him back. I believe that if the ALP thinks it is the right party to govern, it should do what it takes to stay in power. Keeping Gillard as PM = guaranteed loss at next election…then what? We take a time machine back to biblical times and usher in the rule of a crazed Monk, who peddles both push bikes and anti-science propaganda?
If Labor must lose, please let it be close enough in the lead-up that the coalition seals the deal by ditching Abbott for Turnbull. Abbott has fulfilled his role, that of a brazen contrarian who barks like a dog at a mailman whenever policy discussion comes a knocking. Whatever happens, I think I am permanently disillusioned with politics. They are all turds.
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Option 1# – the circus continues. Does anyone else think this is a bad move for Rudd? Doesn’t it mean that the public (who he clearly desperately seeks support from) has to endure more and more speculation and uncertainty, after Gillard has tried to do us all a favour in seeking a swift resolution once and for all?
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This is what is going to happen. Kev will go against Jools. Jools will win (uggh). The Labor Party as we know it will implode sending debris all over the ill prepared Coalition. Tony the Budgie Smuggler will come out of the ashes and say “Doh what do we do now?” Good Grief!
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I’ve got a question about keating and hawke. I was a child when this happened so I don’t remember much about it other than keating taking over. Was there such an uproar when it happened back then? It people refuse to support the labor party after it happened?
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I have to admit I didn’t pay a lot of attention, but during hawke’s last term, it came out that he had done a deal with Keating that midway he would hand over the prime ministership, which he reneged on. They eventually had a caucus meeting much like the one proposed for Monday and Keating won. Keating then led the Labor party to the next term in govt. He was fairly unpopular with the public too, so it was a shock that Labor won the next election (I have to admit I was disappointed that John hewson didn’t win). Howard and Costello also apparently had the same “deal” in Howard’s last term, which he also reneged on, but Costello (unfortunately) never challenged him for the leadership.
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I can remember keating not being liked especially by my parents but I don’t remember hawke being as bitter as Kevin Rudd. From what you have said, hawke seems to have had more warning so maybe that is the difference.
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No Hawke behaved with dignity, as did Beasley when Rudd rolled him as will Julia Gillard if she loses on Monday (or at a later date).
Peter Costello, desperate to become Liberal leader, also conducted himself in a way not to destroy his party – people called him a coward but in hindsight seeing what Rudd is doing to his party I think it’s time to rethink Peter Costello.
John Howard also behaved with dignity during the many times he got rolled (by the electorate and by his own party) on his way to eventually becoming prime minister.
It’s a mystery to me how the people who say they support Rudd cannot see that he is an insecure one-man band who will never change. If he does become leader again it is doubtful he has the ability to bind the party wounds that he has caused. Running a country is about much more than laying on the hands in shopping malls, writing a cute kid’s book and standing around outside a church clutching a bible.
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I remember this and remember that there was no more surprised person than Paul Keating when he won the next election.
I also remember that it seemed that Paul Keating and Bob Hawke seriously disliked each other but behaved with dignity and respect. The Rudd/Gillard challenge seems to have sunk to the level of primary schoolyard politics and that is what is annoying the public (or at least this member of the public)
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Thank you Vanessa. That is what I wondering, if they behaved a hell of a lot better.
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Really think people have written off Rudd too soon. There are a LOT of backbenchers out there (and some cabinet) members who care about one thing….retaining their seat and retaining government.
I seriously do not think Gillard can regain the trust of the people in time (if at all) in order to beat Abbott at the next election.
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Thanks for the explanation on what has happened. It will be an interesting few days prior and the weeks following.
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Option number 1 is in my view the best option. If Kevin Rudd now does nothing – it will make Julia Gillard look even more stupid than she already is (a very difficult thing to do). Remember she called for this spill not Kevin. He can say “I always said that I would not tear her down – I think there has been enough of that. All I asked for is her confidence as I was doing Australia work and all she gave was her ministers to slag me off in-between her attempts to discredit me on 4 corners.” Then he can wait until he thinks he has the numbers – get someone else to force Julia to do a leadership spill of which she will lose and then he can come back as Prime Minister and save the ALP – Julia Gillard can’t do that – she can’t win – she must go.
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How about he says he won’t contest but rather is resigning altougether. By-election, then new election with JG as leader resulting in the most humiliating slaughter of a PM ever. Kev takes up the job he has already been promissed on his most recent O/S tour having served up the perfect revenge to JG and the faceless men (are none of them women?). Could happen.
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I think the whole of Australia would benefit by having PENNY WONG as it’s Prime Minister! At least then we may achieve an INCLUSIVE Australia at last!
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Could Rudd leave party altogether and become an independant?
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Yes. Nothing stopping him from doing that.
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If he does that will that a force an early election?
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Probably, but not necessarily…he could still vote with the Gvt on issues of no confidence and supply…on anything really…unlikely though…
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Whatever happens within this party, I’m 90% certain the Libs are going to win the next Federal election.
K Rudd’s performance this morning at the press conference made me dislike him even more. At least Gillard is transparent.
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Its the coalition. Libs AND the nationals. The liberals haven’t won an election by themselves for years.
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Yes, you are right, when I say “Libs”, I actually mean “LNP” – it’s just laziness on my part!
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As a non-Labor supporter any scenario which leads to the rapid decline of the government would be my preference… but trying to see it from the Labor perspective the only option that gives them a chance in hell is (4) Rudd wins – because if he wins Julia will go away and most party members will get behind Kevin, if only to try and save their seats. Any scenario where Julia remains is just a recipe for more of the same. Why can’t the caucus see how toxic she is to the public at large, compared to Kevin, who is still well liked. They are blind if they keep her on.
Other interesting prospects would be if somehow a third, clean candidate was able to get up. How about Stephen Smith, just about the only minister aside from Rudd, who has done a reasonable job in his portfolio? And he’s stayed above the mudslinging thus far, at least I’m not aware of him being involved. Simon Crean has ruined himself beyond repair and the other names thrown around like Shorten and Combet are too ‘faceless’ to be viable at present. Smith might be boring, but at least he is a fairly fresh, clean pair of hands who might get a honeymoon with the public.
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I agree – there needs to be a third person introduced. Otherwise like Lauren suggests there will be too much bad blood in the party for them to ever get over this…
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Thanks for this article, I was wondering how it could play out.
Still feels a little like a soap opera tho.
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I agree that Kevin doesn’t have the numbers to win and he knows it. I reckon he wont stand for leadership but instead sit back and watch the fun from the back bench. He wants Julia to look silly and paranoid after she has gotten all her mates to bad mouth Kevin. I also think that when the time is right, he will probably resign from parliament, forcing a byelection and possibly a new federal election.
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What a great couple of days it has been!
I hope that he contests, loses and then the Labor party can get back to work!
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Australian government is a worldwide laughing stock.
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Nah, it is just politics! Anywhere else in the world and they’d be shooting each other for the top job! This way is just more…..civilised! lol
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not really.. everyone else out there barely knows we exist, let alone what they think of our government.. seriously, we are minnows in the world
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I really want to know who’s going to win My Kitchen Rules?
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Not Tom and Carla. They are nasty.
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This is a good resource to get a feel for the current numbers in each camp:
http://afr.com/p/home/factbox_who_belongs_to_the_rudd_utFbWZV3578fxVw9MTXaqI
I think Lauren is spot-on…I still don’t think Rudd has enough numbers and won’t contest the leadership on Monday…round 1 to Gillard…but not game set and match.
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Agreed. I personally feel he would be an idiot to contest now. He does not have the numbers. No matter how this goes, I don’t really see a good outcome for Labor.
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